Real estate stats can be misleading at the best of times and this sample study is just a small snapshot comparing 2017 Uptown Toronto real estate numbers to 2018 up to this point in the year (January 1st – February 16th). So I would not read too much into this study but on the other hand the numbers do reveal some underlying currents in the market and do provide a glimpse of what the rest of the year might look like. Hopefully this will be more valuable than the spring forecast provided by everybody’s favourite groundhog Wiarton Willie. Also, just want to point out these stats are for houses only and do not include condominiums which I know many of you are interested in and will be featured in upcoming blogs.
So with no further ado here are your current real estate stats for Uptown Toronto neighbourhoods. In 2017 we had recorded 44 sales to date as compared to just 36 so far in 2018. This is not surprising at all given the incredibly cold and snowy winter we have experienced and the overall climate of the market with everybody worrying about mortgage stress tests and the like. Round and round we go, where the real estate ball stops nobody knows. But here are some more clues.
The average sale price in 2017 within this window of time (again that is January 1st – February 16th) was $2,248,000. In 2018 that number is $1,832,000. Now if you are a homeowner in Toronto’s Uptown neighbourhoods, before you start panicking, please keep in mind that one or two big sales can skew these numbers dramatically either way. And with fewer listings thus far in 2018 you can be sure some of the more expensive homes have yet to hit the market but when they do expect them to fetch big numbers. This is Uptown after all and as the great Rob Harbin once said – “all the prime time players want to play on centre court”.
Early 2017 was one of the hottest real estate markets ever in Toronto; so it is somewhat unfair to compare any market to that market. The frenzy that existed in 2017 was reflected in a list to sale price ratio of 109% for Uptown homes, versus a more modest 99% ratio in 2018, which is more in line with historical averages. The average days on market from list to all conditions met and a firm sale was twelve days in 2017 compared to fifteen days in 2018 which is very telling as it shows buyers are still eager to pounce when a new listing hits the market. In fact fifteen houses have sold for asking or above to date in 2018, which is only slightly less than 2017 when twenty-two sales sold for asking or above.
So what to read into all these stats ? Is the market down ? Statistically speaking, yes. But remember we are comparing the new normal 2018 (which was also the old normal) to the outlier 2017 which was a runaway freight train. So all things considered the numbers look quite positive for 2018 heading into the spring market which is traditionally when houses come on the market in this part of the City and prices spike higher. A wise real estate person once said remember the three principles of real estate “location, location, location”; this should be a harbinger when it comes to Uptown Toronto real estate.
Contributor: David Dunkelman, Broker, Royal Lepage Signature Realty. David is a 26 year veteran of the Toronto Real Estate Board with a special focus on Uptown neighbourhoods. David is the author of the book Your Guide to Toronto Neighbourhoods and Your Guide to Toronto Suburbs. David can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org or at 416-726-6574.